Colombia, el tercer mercado emergente más atractivo para invertir

En las condiciones actuales, los administradores de portafolios en el mundo han tenido que volver a mirar a los países emergentes, y Colombia luce como uno de los mercados más atractivos.

Así se desprende de un informe realizado por el equipo de investigaciones económicas de AdCap Colombia, según el cual el país sería la tercera mejor opción para invertir, solo superado por Malasia y Polonia.

Otman Gordillo, director de Estrategia en AdCap Colombia, señala que en momentos en que se mantienen altos niveles de liquidez mundial, los fondos internacionales buscan alternativas que ofrezcan una buena combinación entre rentabilidad y seguridad.

En ese escenario, se hizo un análisis sobre cómo está Colombia frente a otros países, en particular con los otros 14 que hacen parte del índice GBI-EM de JP Morgan,que es replicado por muchos fondos del exterior. (Lea: Colombia, protagonista entre
países emergentes en 2016
)

Si bien el país es séptimo en ponderación dentro de ese indicador, en realidad es el que más peso ha ganado desde febrero, pues pasó de 5,83 a 7,12 %.

Ese cambio automáticamente se traduce en más inversión, pues los portafolios que están atados al índice tienen que rebalancearse.

De cualquier manera, en los nueve factores que se evalúan en el estudio, las mayores fortalezas de Colombia están en la liquidez del mercado de deuda pública, la estabilidad y el régimen tributario en el mercado de capitales.

En cuanto al primer punto, el país tiene 11 referencias de TES entre los 193 papeles que hacen parte del índice. De hecho, dos de ellos están entre los 10 de mayor liquidez (el TES que vence en el 2024 es el segundo). (Lea: ‘Colombia es atractiva, pero
se pagan muchos impuestos
’)

Y si bien México, Indonesia, Tailandia y Brasil también tienen títulos líquidos, la diferencia es que los colombianos pagan cupones más altos.

Vale la pena recordar que los extranjeros son los segundos tenedores de deuda pública colombiana, después de los fondos de pensiones.

Según datos del Ministerio de Hacienda, concentran poco más del 20% del total (unos 44 billones de pesos). Hace un año, estaban en el cuarto puesto.

Frente a la estabilidad, Colombia es el tercero entre los países de la muestra en el índice de libertad económica del Heritage Foundation, y es uno de los de mayor estabilidad política.

Y en impuestos, la tasa a las ganancias de capital en el país es 14 %, una de las más bajas en las economías analizadas.

Otro tema que juega a favor es la calificación de riesgo soberano del país, pues está un escalón por encima del grado de inversión, aunque haya siete países con mejor nota y un número igual con calificaciones más bajas.

De igual manera, la tasa de intervención (7,5%) es la segunda más alta, y aunque la inflación está por encima de ese nivel, hay expectativas de que pronto empiece a disminuir.

No obstante, en el frente macro, hay dos temas en los cuales Colombia tiene desventajas frente a sus colegas del índice.

Si bien las proyecciones de crecimiento para este año (alrededor de 2,5%) son positivas en América Latina, lo cierto es que nueve de las economías de la muestra tienen mejores perspectivas

El otro punto que genera inquietudes es el de los déficit fiscal y de cuenta corriente, pues está al fondo de la tabla.

De todas formas, para mantener el atractivo para la inversión, Gordillo considera queuna prioridad es sacar adelante la reforma tributaria estructural, pues este es un factor clave para que las agencias no le disminuyan la calificación al país.

Y específicamente frente a la deuda pública, aunque las tasas de los TES han tenido una baja importante en los últimos meses (lo que valoriza los títulos), el analista considera que si bien habrá altibajos en los intereses, las oportunidades se mantienen.

Por lo pronto, el comportamiento de los precios del petróleo, la evolución del ‘Brexit’ y las decisiones de política monetaria en Estados Unidos, seguirán siendo el principal riesgo para las inversiones en emergentes.

Fuente:http://www.portafolio.co/economia/colombia-el-tercer-mercado-emergente-mas-atractivo-para-invertir-498751

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